If you have been following Silicon Valley housing headlines this fall, you have probably heard two stories that seem to contradict each other. On one hand, the San Jose metro still posted the highest median price of any U.S. metro in the National Association of Realtors’ third-quarter report. On the other, buyers are getting more time, more choices and, in some cases, real room to negotiate. The reason both can be true comes down to a simple question: are you shopping for a condo or a single-family home?
The latest Santa Clara County numbers show two very different markets running side by side. Detached homes are still selling above asking in under a month. Condos and townhomes are sitting longer, closing right around list price, and piling up inventory. For buyers and sellers heading into the holiday season, that split matters more than any single countywide median. Here is the newest sourced data and what it means for you as November begins.
The two markets at a glance
Here is how Santa Clara County condos and single-family resale homes compared in September 2026, the most recent full month of data, according to the Santa Clara County Market Trends Report compiled from MLS data. Inventory counts are as of October 5.
| September 2026 | Single-family resale | Condos and townhomes |
|---|---|---|
| Median or average price | $1,965,500 median | $976,884 average |
| Price change vs. last year | Median down 1.5% | Median down 8.1% |
| Homes sold | 644 (down 0.3% YoY) | 232 (down 9.4% YoY) |
| Pending sales vs. last year | Down 8.5% | Up 10.9% |
| Active inventory | 993 (up 18.6% YoY) | 711 (up 17.9% YoY) |
| Average days to sell | 26 days | 39 days |
| Sale price to list price | 103.6% | 100.1% |
| Days of inventory | 45 days | 89 days |
“Days of inventory” is the number of days it would take to sell every home currently listed at the current pace of sales. At 45 days, single-family homes remain in tight, seller-friendly territory. At 89 days, the condo market has roughly twice as much supply relative to demand, and the report notes condo days of inventory rose from 81 to 89 in a single month.
Why the countywide medians do not tell the whole story
You will see slightly different Santa Clara County median prices depending on the source, because each one measures a slightly different set of sales:
- California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.): $1,920,000 single-family median in September, down 4.0% from a year earlier but up 1.1% from August. Sales rose 15.3% month over month and 1.5% year over year, and active listings were up 26.4% from last year.
- Santa Clara County Association of Realtors (SCCAOR): $1,880,000 single-family median, down 4% year over year and up 1.6% from August, on 726 sales, with homes taking an average of 27 days to sell.
- Santa Clara County Market Trends Report: $1,965,500 median for single-family resales, down 1.5% year over year.
All three point in the same direction: detached home prices are slightly below last year but firming month to month, with more homes for sale than a year ago. The condo numbers are where the bigger shift is happening. An 8.1% year-over-year drop in the condo median is a much larger move than anything we are seeing in single-family homes.
Statewide, C.A.R. reported a September condo and townhome median of $640,000, down 1.5% from a year earlier, with condo sales down 7.5%. So Santa Clara County condos are softening faster than the California condo market overall.
The national and rate backdrop this week
Mortgage rates eased, but remain well above last year
Freddie Mac’s weekly survey released October 29 put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.24%, down from 7.32% the week before, and the 15-year fixed at 6.60%. A year ago, the 30-year average was 6.17%. Condo buyers tend to be first-time buyers or buyers stretching to get into the market, so they feel every tenth of a point.
Here is what that looks like in monthly principal and interest (my own calculation, before property taxes, insurance and HOA dues), assuming 20% down:
- Condo near the county average ($976,884; about $781,500 loan): about $5,326 a month at 7.24%, versus about $4,771 at last year’s 6.17%. That is roughly $555 more per month.
- Single-family home near the county median ($1,965,500; about $1,572,400 loan): about $10,716 a month at 7.24%, versus about $9,600 at 6.17%. That is roughly $1,116 more per month.
For a condo buyer, the higher rate alone can wipe out the savings from a lower price.
Redfin: San Jose stands out for new listings
Redfin’s housing market update published October 29, covering the four weeks ending October 25, found that the U.S. median sale price fell 0.1% year over year to $389,601, the first annual decline in more than three years. Pending sales fell 15.9% to the lowest level in Redfin’s records, and the median monthly mortgage payment hit $2,786.
The San Jose metro showed up twice in that report. Its median sale price fell 4.9% year over year, one of the five largest declines among major metros, and its new listings rose 17.9% year over year, the largest increase of any metro Redfin tracks. San Francisco went the other way, with the median sale price up 15%. In other words, the South Bay is where more sellers are coming to market, and that added supply is landing hardest in the segments with the fewest buyers.
One bright spot: condo pending sales are rising
There is one number in the September report that cuts against the soft condo story, and it is worth watching. Condo pending sales in Santa Clara County were up 10.9% from a year earlier, while single-family pending sales were down 8.5%.
Pending sales are contracts signed but not yet closed, so they are an early signal of where closings are heading. My read: lower condo prices are starting to pull buyers back in. When a two-bedroom townhome is several percent cheaper than last year and the seller is willing to negotiate, the math starts to work for buyers who were priced out of detached homes. If that holds, the best condo values may not last into spring.
What this means for buyers
Condo and townhome buyers: you have leverage, use it
With condos averaging 39 days on market and selling at about 100% of list price, you are not in a bidding war on most listings. That opens the door to:
- Seller credits toward a rate buydown. On a roughly $780,000 loan, buying the rate down even half a point can save a few hundred dollars a month, often more than an equal price reduction would.
- Inspection and repair requests that many buyers skipped during the hotter markets of recent years.
- Offers below list on stale listings. Homes that have been sitting past the 39-day average are the ones most likely to accept.
- Careful review of HOA documents. Dues, reserves, special assessments and rental rules can make or break a condo purchase. My guide on HOA rules and fees for San Jose condo buyers walks through what to check.
Single-family buyers: expect competition on the best homes
A 103.6% sale-to-list ratio and 26 days to sell mean well-priced detached homes in good school areas still draw multiple offers. More inventory gives you more to choose from, but it does not mean every seller will negotiate. Get fully underwritten preapproval, know your walk-away number, and watch for homes that have had a price reduction, since those sellers are the most flexible.
Consider the condo-to-house ladder
For many first-time buyers, a condo or townhome purchase now, while that market is soft, can be a way to start building equity rather than waiting for detached prices to fall. Run the full numbers against renting first. My rent vs. buy breakdown for San Jose and the First-Time Homebuyer’s Guide to San Jose are good places to start.
What this means for sellers
Condo and townhome sellers: price to the market, not to 2024
With 711 condos for sale and about three months’ worth of supply, buyers can and do compare. The listings that sell in this market are the ones priced at or slightly below recent comparable sales, in move-in condition and photographed well. Overpricing a condo right now usually means sitting, followed by a price cut, followed by a lower final price than if you had priced right the first time.
- Offer incentives instead of only cutting price. A seller-paid rate buydown or closing-cost credit can make your unit more affordable on a monthly basis than a competing listing that is cheaper on paper.
- Have your HOA package ready on day one. Buyers and lenders want to see reserves, budgets and any pending assessments early.
Single-family sellers: still a seller’s market, but buyers are pickier
Detached homes are still selling quickly and above asking on average. But inventory is up nearly 19% from last year and pending sales are down, so buyers have more alternatives than they did in the spring. Presentation, pre-listing inspections and realistic pricing still separate the homes that get multiple offers from the ones that linger.
City and neighborhood notes for condo and townhome shoppers
The countywide data does not break condos out by city, so the notes below are based on where condo and townhome inventory is concentrated and how those areas have been trending.
- Downtown San Jose and North San Jose: The county’s largest concentration of high-rise and mid-rise condos. These buildings often have higher HOA dues, which matters more when rates are above 7%. Expect the most negotiating room here.
- Berryessa and Milpitas: Newer townhome communities near BART and major employers. See my Berryessa neighborhood guide.
- Evergreen and Cambrian: Established townhome communities in single-family neighborhoods, often with good schools and lower dues than downtown towers. A popular middle ground for buyers who want more space without a detached price tag.
- Santa Clara, Sunnyvale and Mountain View: Townhomes close to major tech campuses draw steady demand from tech workers, and are typically the most competitive condo segment in the county.
- West Valley (Campbell, Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino): Limited condo supply and strong school districts keep these markets tighter. Good condos here can still draw multiple offers.
Frequently asked questions
Are condo prices falling in Santa Clara County?
Yes. The Santa Clara County Market Trends Report showed the condo median down 8.1% year over year in September 2026, with the average sale price at $976,884, down 9.3%. That is a bigger decline than single-family homes, whose median was down 1.5% in the same report.
How long does it take to sell a condo in Santa Clara County right now?
An average of 39 days in September 2026, compared with 26 days for single-family homes. Condos sold at about 100.1% of list price on average, versus 103.6% for detached homes.
Is now a good time to buy a condo in San Jose?
For buyers with stable income and a long time horizon, this fall offers more selection and more negotiating power than we have seen in years. Condo pending sales are already up 10.9% from last year, which suggests other buyers are noticing. The trade-off is a 30-year rate around 7.24%, so focus on the monthly payment, HOA dues and your plans for the next five to seven years.
Should I sell my condo now or wait until spring 2027?
It depends on your timeline. Listing during the holidays means fewer competing listings and motivated buyers. Waiting for spring brings more buyers but also more inventory, and San Jose new listings are already rising faster than anywhere else Redfin tracks. If you list now, price carefully and consider buyer incentives.
The bottom line
Santa Clara County is not one housing market right now; it is two. Single-family homes are still selling fast and above asking, even with more inventory. Condos and townhomes are slower, flatter and more negotiable, which creates a real opening for first-time buyers and a real pricing challenge for condo sellers. Early signs of rising condo pending sales suggest that window may not stay open forever.
Whether you are hoping to buy your first townhome, sell a condo, or make the jump to a single-family home, the right strategy depends on your specific property, neighborhood and timeline. I would be glad to pull the latest comparable sales for your building or neighborhood and help you build a clear plan. Call or text Najwa Khoury at 408-477-6262 or visit NajwaRealEstate.com to schedule a no-pressure consultation.
Najwa Khoury, Real Brokerage, DRE #02026194
Sources
- Santa Clara County Market Trends Report, September 2026 (single-family and condo data)
- California Association of Realtors, September 2026 home sales and price report, October 19, 2026
- Santa Clara County Association of Realtors, September 2026 housing statistics
- Freddie Mac, “Mortgage Rates Decline Further to 7.24%,” October 29, 2026
- The Mortgage Reports, mortgage rates for October 30, 2026
- National Association of Realtors, Q3 2026 metro home prices, October 29, 2026
- Redfin, “U.S. Home-Sale Prices Just Fell for the First Time in 3 Years,” October 29, 2026